Fast Changing Consumer Behavior Forcing New Business Models

Research Brief from the Center for Media Research
by Jack Loechner
Thursday, June 24, 2010

According to PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2010-2014, global entertainment and media spending is expected to rise from $1.3 trillion to $1.7 trillion by 2014, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 5.0%.  The US E&M market is expected to grow at 3.8% CAGR reaching $517 billion in 2014, from $428 billion in 2009. Fast changing consumer behavior is expected to be the catalyst of the entertainment and media industry change over the next five years,

Ken Sharkey, US leader, entertainment, media & communications practice, PricewaterhouseCoopers, notes that “… the digital pace of change has proven to be even quicker than anticipated with consumers embracing new media… and digital downloads at often-unexpected speeds… the continued fragmentation of the E&M sector will fuel greater experimentation by both established industry giants and niche players… ”

Digital services continue to be the primary growth engine, but traditional revenue streams are expected to remain significantly larger throughout the forecast period.  The industry will need to embrace digital not as a competitor to traditional services, but as a complement. Digital spending in the US is expected to account for 26% of all E&M spending in 2014, up from 19% in 2009.     

While there are signs of a rebound, advertising is unlikely to return to former levels. By 2014, the US advertising spend is expected to still be 9% below its level in 2007.  Overall US advertising is expected to increase at a 2.6 % CAGR from $159 billion in 2009 to $180 billion in 2014.  In the US, Internet advertising is expected to surpass newspaper advertising spend in 2010. 

Advertising spending for Internet, television, radio, out-of-home, and video games are expected to be larger in 2014 than in 2009, while consumer magazines, newspapers, directories and trade magazines are expected to be smaller. These projections reflect the market fragmentation and consumer behavioral changes. The advertising industry is responding to consumers’ shifting attention and migrating towards total marketing or total brand communication.  Brands are changing their focus from advertising on a medium, to marketing through, and with, content.  

Consumer feedback and usage provides the only reliable guide to the commercial viability of products and services, and the global consumer base is being used as a test-bed for new offerings and consumption models.  PwC has identified three themes that are expected to emerge from changing consumer behavior and the industry must anticipate and pre-empt the needs and wants of consumers.  

  • Rising power of mobility and devices: Advances in technology are expected to see increasingly converged, multi-functional mobile devices come of age as a consumption platform by the end of 2011. By 2014, US mobile Internet access subscribers are projected to increase to 96.1 million, a 40% CAGR from 2009. 
  • Growing dominance of Internet experience over all content consumption: Increasingly, the consumer has moved beyond thinking of the Internet as an end in itself, and expects all forms of media to embed the convenience, immediacy and interactivity of the Internet. People are already consuming magazines and newspapers on Internet-enabled tablets, and streaming personalized music services in preference to buying physical CDs.
  • Increasing engagement and readiness to pay for content-driven by improved consumption experiences and convenience: Consumers are more willing to pay for content when accompanied by convenience and flexibility in usage, personalization and a differentiated experience that cannot be created elsewhere. Local relevance is also expected to enhance the content providers’ ability to charge.  

Digital migration and consumer behavior changes have put extreme pressure on existing business models.  The proliferation of platforms and rising consumer expectations mean companies can no longer ‘be everything.’

“The industry must radically rethink its approach to monetizing content in capturing new revenue sources, from transactions or from participation with others operating in the evolving digital value chain… ” added Ken Sharkey.   

Segment highlights In the US:

  • Internet access and Internet advertising is expected to continue to outperform the other E&M segments, with 8.8 % and 7.7% CAGR, respectively 
  • Video games (6.4% CAGR)
  • TV subscriptions (6.5% CAGR)
  • TV advertising (5.3% CAGR)
  • Radio (4.6% CAGR),
  • Filmed entertainment (3.6% CAGR)
  • Out-of-home advertising (3.2% CAGR)
  • Consumer and educational book publishing (2.5% CAGR)
  • Business-to-business publishing (0.9% CAGR)
  • Recorded music (-2.4 CAGR)
  • Newspaper publishing (-2.8 CAGR)
  • Consumer magazine publishing (-0.5 CAGR)
  • Overall, US consumer/end-user spending is expected to grow by 3.7% CAGR
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Posted under Mobile, New Media, Newspaper, Online, Radio, Revenue, TV & Cable

Posted by Sharon on June 25, 2010

Consumers Substituting Online TV for Cable

From MEDIAWEEK
July 29, 2009

Nearly a fifth of Internet users watch video online almost every day. Women are catching up to men in terms of online video usage. And a growing number of recession-conscious Americans claim they are using the Web as a cable TV substitute.

Those are some of the more noteworthy research nuggets found in the latest report issued on Wednesday (July 29) by the Pew Research Center’s Internet & American Life Project, which focused specifically on online video. According to the report, 19 percent of Internet users surveyed claim they visit video sites in a typical day, up from 8 percent just three years ago. Read More…

Posted under Online, TV & Cable

Teens more “normal” than you think with media usage

From Radio Business Report/Television Business Report – Voice of the Broadcast Industry
June 26, 2009

They might be on the Internet, or gaming or texting… but they could also be watching live TV, listening to the radio or reading a newspaper. At the annual What Teens Want conference in New York, The Nielsen Company presented How Teens Use Media, which argues once you look past the hype – American teens are not as alien in their media usage as you might expect. Sure, it might sound hip and trendy to suggest they’re too busy texting, Twittering or LOL-ing to be engaged with traditional media, but ultimately, the research proves otherwise. Read More…

Posted under Online, Radio, Research, TV & Cable

Posted by Cheri on June 26, 2009

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Survey: Streaming On The Rise

From Radio Ink Magazine
June 3, 2009

SOUTHFIELD, MI — June 2, 2009: Jacobs Media’s online survey of 21,000 members of Rock radio station databases found that streaming is on the rise, with the percentage of respondents who have never streamed radio online at 34 percent, down from 50 percent when the surveys began, in 2005. Thirty-nine percent of respondents in the new survey said they stream radio at least weekly, up from 32 percent a year ago and part of a “steady rise” since 2005. Read More…

Posted under Online, Radio

Posted by Cheri on June 3, 2009

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Two New Studies Show Internet Radio Listening is Growing

From Radio Business Report
By Jennifer Lane
April 14, 2009

Newly released studies by American Media Services and Edison Media Research both indicate a growing Internet Radio audience. Last week Edison Media released a few facts from its updated Infinite Dial Study, done jointly with Arbitron. The new info reveals that Internet radio’s US weekly audience is 42 million and that figure represents 17% of Americans 12+ and has doubled since 2005. Kurt Hanson’s RAIN: Radio and Internet Newsletter did a nice job of updating a chart from last year’s Infinite Dial Study to reflect this growth. The full presentation will be released on April 16th and presented by Tom Webster of Edison Media Research at the RAIN Summit on April 20th. Read More…

Posted under Online, Radio, Research

Posted by Cheri on April 14, 2009

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Don’t get too excited over internet TV: Networks have no reason to flood the web with shows

From Media Life Research
By Diego Vasquez
April 9, 2009

Two weeks ago, Nielsen released a study showing that time spent watching online video was nowhere near as significant as many had thought, with television accounting for 99 percent of screen time. It seems media buyers already knew that. A new study from The Convergence Consulting Group, an Ontario-based media consultant, finds that only a very small percentage of TV dollars are migrating to the internet, and that won’t change much in the coming years. Just 2.4 percent of U.S. broadcast/cable network TV advertising revenue in 2008 came from the internet, and that will rise to 4.6 percent in 2011. What’s more, we may see broadcast and especially cable networks putting fewer shows online for the public and instead walling them off for subscribers in order to protect their sales based on programming revenue. Still, the report predicts that viewers may simply be more interested in DVRs than online viewing anyway, as they can then fast-forward through commercials rather than being forced to watch them, as is the current online model. Convergence predicts that DVRs will be in half of all households by 2011. Brahm Eiley, president of The Convergence Consulting Group, talks to Media Life about growth potential for online TV, why it’s not that promising, and what impact DVRs will have on the marketplace. Read More…

Posted under DVR, Online, Research, TV & Cable

Posted by Cheri on April 9, 2009

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Hear This: Online Radio Audience Doubles Since 2005

From Media Post Publications
By Eric Sass
April 8, 2009

The economy be damned. Online radio is still going strong, according to “Infinite Dial 2009,” Arbitron’s latest overview of the medium, due out later this week. The news follows a series of deals confirming that whatever happens in the economy at large, online radio is rapidly carving out a niche for itself in the digital media landscape.

And it’s a sizeable niche. 42 million Americans over the age of 12 listen to radio during an average week, more than double the 2005 figure of 20 million, and up 27% from 33 million in 2008. That means online radio currently reaches about 17% of Americans over the age of 12, up from about 8% in 2005 and 13% in 2008. These figures are based on data collected and analyzed by Arbitron and Edison Research. Read More…

Posted under Online, Radio, Research, Revenue

Posted by Cheri on April 8, 2009

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Internet Tops Newspapers As News Source, Still Lags TV

From MediaPost Publications
From Erik Sass
December 28, 2008

The Internet is now the most popular source of news after TV, according to the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, which released its year-end roundup of news media consumption last week. While TV is still king of the hill, its steady decline in the face of Internet competition bodes ill in the long term.

In 2008, 40% of the respondents said they got most of their national and international news from the Internet, versus 35% for newspapers in 2008. The Internet’s share is up from 24% in 2007, while newspapers also increased slightly, from 34%. The long-term trend is even clearer: the Internet’s share has more than tripled from 13% in 2001, while newspapers fell by almost a quarter–from 45%, in those six years. Read More…

Posted under Newspaper, Online, Research, TV & Cable

Posted by Cheri on December 28, 2008

Radio Influences Online Behavior

From Radio Business Report
Jennifer Lane, President, Audio4Cast.com
By December 25, 2008

A new study of “Digital Influencers” finds that radio plays a significant role in their online behavior. MS&L, a communications firm and part of Publicis Groupe, partnered with Ipsos to survey nearly 1000 people whose online behavior defined them as a Digital Influencer because they frequently researched and passed on information online. The study found that traditional media – newspapers and magazines, television and radio – played a “vital role in igniting the process that leads influencers to share information online”. 84% of those surveyed said they go online to learn more after hearing something on the radio or seeing it on television. Read More…

Posted under Newspaper, Online, Radio, Research, TV & Cable

Posted by Cheri on December 25, 2008

2008 EAR Award Winner: Radio Helps Mossy Nissan Catch Customers in Its Web

You name the radio station and chances are Mossy Nissan used it to carry the message of the car dealer™s September 2007 Bottom Line Online campaign. Advanced Marketing Strategies, the agency that produced the spots, intended to reach customers who do their pre-shopping online before arriving at the lot to buy their new cars.

According to Kathy Cunningham of AM Strategies, Nissan was having a factory sale nationwide that we perceived as boring and very lackluster. We decided to put an “online spin to it and an urgent call to action. We wanted Mossy to stand out from the crowd, and at the same time, increase internet traffic and sales.
Read More…

Posted under Creative, EAR Award Winners, Online