According to PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Global Entertainment and Media Outlook: 2010-2014, global entertainment and media spending is expected to rise from $1.3 trillion to $1.7 trillion by 2014, growing at a compound annual growth rate of 5.0%.  The US E&M market is expected to grow at 3.8% CAGR reaching $517 billion in 2014, from $428 billion in 2009. Fast changing consumer behavior is expected to be the catalyst of the entertainment and media industry change over the next five years,

Ken Sharkey, US leader, entertainment, media & communications practice, PricewaterhouseCoopers, notes that “… the digital pace of change has proven to be even quicker than anticipated with consumers embracing new media… and digital downloads at often-unexpected speeds… the continued fragmentation of the E&M sector will fuel greater experimentation by both established industry giants and niche players… ”

Digital services continue to be the primary growth engine, but traditional revenue streams are expected to remain significantly larger throughout the forecast period.  The industry will need to embrace digital not as a competitor to traditional services, but as a complement. Digital spending in the US is expected to account for 26% of all E&M spending in 2014, up from 19% in 2009.     

While there are signs of a rebound, advertising is unlikely to return to former levels. By 2014, the US advertising spend is expected to still be 9% below its level in 2007.  Overall US advertising is expected to increase at a 2.6 % CAGR from $159 billion in 2009 to $180 billion in 2014.  In the US, Internet advertising is expected to surpass newspaper advertising spend in 2010. 

Advertising spending for Internet, television, radio, out-of-home, and video games are expected to be larger in 2014 than in 2009, while consumer magazines, newspapers, directories and trade magazines are expected to be smaller. These projections reflect the market fragmentation and consumer behavioral changes. The advertising industry is responding to consumers’ shifting attention and migrating towards total marketing or total brand communication.  Brands are changing their focus from advertising on a medium, to marketing through, and with, content.  

Consumer feedback and usage provides the only reliable guide to the commercial viability of products and services, and the global consumer base is being used as a test-bed for new offerings and consumption models.  PwC has identified three themes that are expected to emerge from changing consumer behavior and the industry must anticipate and pre-empt the needs and wants of consumers.  

• Rising power of mobility and devices: Advances in technology are expected to see increasingly converged, multi-functional mobile devices come of age as a consumption platform by the end of 2011. By 2014, US mobile Internet access subscribers are projected to increase to 96.1 million, a 40% CAGR from 2009. 
• Growing dominance of Internet experience over all content consumption: Increasingly, the consumer has moved beyond thinking of the Internet as an end in itself, and expects all forms of media to embed the convenience, immediacy and interactivity of the Internet. People are already consuming magazines and newspapers on Internet-enabled tablets, and streaming personalized music services in preference to buying physical CDs.
• Increasing engagement and readiness to pay for content-driven by improved consumption experiences and convenience: Consumers are more willing to pay for content when accompanied by convenience and flexibility in usage, personalization and a differentiated experience that cannot be created elsewhere. Local relevance is also expected to enhance the content providers’ ability to charge.  

Digital migration and consumer behavior changes have put extreme pressure on existing business models.  The proliferation of platforms and rising consumer expectations mean companies can no longer ‘be everything.’

“The industry must radically rethink its approach to monetizing content in capturing new revenue sources, from transactions or from participation with others operating in the evolving digital value chain… ” added Ken Sharkey.   

Segment highlights In the US:

• Internet access and Internet advertising is expected to continue to outperform the other E&M segments, with 8.8 % and 7.7% CAGR, respectively 
• Video games (6.4% CAGR)
• TV subscriptions (6.5% CAGR)
• TV advertising (5.3% CAGR)
• Radio (4.6% CAGR),
• Filmed entertainment (3.6% CAGR)
• Out-of-home advertising (3.2% CAGR)
• Consumer and educational book publishing (2.5% CAGR)
• Business-to-business publishing (0.9% CAGR)
• Recorded music (-2.4 CAGR)
• Newspaper publishing (-2.8 CAGR)
• Consumer magazine publishing (-0.5 CAGR)

• Overall, US consumer/end-user spending is expected to grow by 3.7% CAGR

inserted from:

http://www.mediapost.com/publications/fa=Articles.showArticle&art_aid=130544

Posted under Mobile, New Media, Newspaper, Online, Radio, Revenue, TV & Cable

From MediaPost Publications

by Erik Sass, Monday, April 26, 2010

The average weekday circulation of 604 American newspapers declined yet again over the last year, dropping 8.7% from March 2009-March 2010, according to the latest figures from the Audit Bureau of Circulations. Meanwhile, Sunday circulations for 548 newspapers with Sunday editions declined 6.5%.

Newspapers that took the biggest hits in weekday circulation included The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, down 25% to 196,200; The Boston Globe, down 23.2% to 232,432; The San Francisco Chronicle, down 23% to 241,330; Newark, NJ’s Star-Ledger, down 17.8% to 236,017; The Miami Herald, down 15.5% to 170,769; the Los Angeles Times, down 15% to 616,606; The Washington Post, down 13.1% to 578,482; and USA Today, down 13.6% to 1,826,622.

Somewhat more modest decreases were seen at the Boston Herald, down 12% to 132,551; the Chicago Tribune, down 10% to 452,145; the Phoenix Republic, down 10% to 351,207; Long Island’s Newsday, down 9.3% to 334,809; and The New York Times, down 8.5% to 951,063.

In the perennial battle between New York City’s tabloids, the New York Daily News took an 11.3% hit, sinking to 535,059, while the New York Post sank a mere 6% to 525,004.

While this gives bragging rights to the Daily News as the larger daily tabloid, the truth is that both newspapers have been passing each other on the downslope for years, at least as far as weekday circulation is concerned.

Circ-wise, it’s not all bad news for papers

Publishers in some cases are cutting circulation

From Media Life Magazine

By Toni Fitzgerald

Apr 27, 2010

Newspapers once again took a big circulation hit during the fall and winter months.

According to the Audit Bureau of Circulations, average weekday circulation declined 8.74 percent for the six months ended March 31, slightly better than the last reporting period but nearly double the rate from 18 months ago.

Much of the blame goes to recession and the continuing loss of subscribers to the internet.

Read More…

Posted under Newspaper

Suffers first ever double-digit decline over six months

By Toni Fitzgerald / Media Life Magazine
Oct 26, 2009
 
The circulation decline for U.S. newspapers got even steeper during the latest reporting period, hitting double digits for the first time.
 
Average weekday circulation fell by 10.62 percent during the six months ended Sept. 30 for the 379 daily newspapers measured by the Audit Bureau of Circulations, which released the data this morning. That marked a loss of more than 3 million copies per day, from 34,005,421 last year to 30,395,652 this year.
 
That’s a much steeper decline than was reported in the last three periods. The period ending in March this year saw daily circ fall 7.09 percent, the period ended in September ‘08 was off 4.64 percent, and the period ended in March ‘08 was off 3.6 percent.
 
Sunday papers also suffered significant falloffs during the period ended last month. ABC figures for 562 papers found that circulation declined 7.49 percent, from 43,253,201 to 40,012,253.
 
Again, that was a much steeper dip than the previous three recording periods, which saw dips of 5.37 percent, 4.85 percent and 4.6 percent.
 
Circulation has been decreasing for years, obviously, but there’d been speculation that this reporting period would see even bigger drops.
 
For one thing, the recession has forced people to cut back on all sorts of extras, and that includes newspapers now that news is available via other free sources like the internet and cable.
 
Too, changes in the industry itself have hurt circulation. The Detroit newspapers, for example, cut back on delivery, and USA Today has been hurt by changes in its hotel programs.
 
As expected, the Wall Street Journal surpassed USA Today to become the nation’s No. 1 newspaper, with an average daily circulation of 2.02 million.

Posted under Newspaper

From MediaPost Publications
By Eric Sass
September 17, 2009

The decline in newspaper ad revenues — now several years old — will continue for at least another year, according to Fitch Ratings, which issued the gloomy prediction in an overview of the media business released earlier this week.

According to Fitch’s “Credit Encylo-Media,” newspapers will not share in the recovery forecast for some other media in 2010, thanks to continuing downward trends in all three traditional mainstays of newspaper advertising: classifieds, local, and national ads. Read More…

Posted under Newspaper, Research, Revenue

From Media Life Magazine
By Louisa Ada Seltzer
June 3, 2009

Newspaper ad revenue plummets 28.3 percent

Newspaper ad revenue has declined each of the past three years, and it certainly doesn’t look like that will change this year. Papers suffered their worst decline in recorded history during first quarter, according to numbers put out by the Newspaper Association of America. Quarterly revenue plunged 28.3 percent compared to the same time last year, from $9.2 billion to $6.6 billion. The hurt was felt across print and online both, with the latter slipping 13.4 percent to just over $696 million, the steepest decline since the NAA began tracking web revenue in 2003. Print was off 29.7 percent, to $5.9 billion. Classified took the biggest hit, off 42.3 percent from last year. It follows the worst-ever quarterly decline for radio as well.

Posted under Newspaper, Revenue

From MediaPost Publications
By Erik Sass
May 14, 2009

Much attention has been focused on the decline of major American newspapers, and it’s common knowledge that print advertising revenues have plunged over the last couple of years. But exactly how much money have newspapers lost in their print operations? An estimated $18.7 billion from 2006-2008. Read More…

Posted under Newspaper, Revenue

Blog By Geoffrey James
April 29th, 2009

I asked a room full of newspaper writers a simple question: “Have you EVER read a newspaper advertisement?” Less than 5 percent admitted to having done so. Ever. In their whole lives.

Think about that for a minute. If newspaper writers aren’t reading newspaper ads, why would newspaper readers be reading them? And if nobody is reading newspaper ads, what’s the value of that ad? Not much, obviously.

Read the entire blog article here.

Posted under Newspaper

From the San Diego Business Journal Online
By Connie Lewis
April 28, 2009

Weekday circulation for The San Diego Union-Tribune stood at 261,253 on March 31, down from 288,785 on the same day last year, according to a report released April 27 by the Audit Bureau of Circulations. The ABC takes snapshots of newspapers’ circulation figures every six months — on the last days of March and September. Read More…

Posted under Newspaper

From Radio Ink Magazine
March 26, 2009

LOS ANGELES — March 26, 2009: Los Angeles Times columnist Dan Neil, in a recent column on online advertising and newspapers, talked with Rubicon Project CEO Frank Addante, who runs an online-ad optimization company that specializes in newspaper websites. And Neil closed out the column with this quote from Addante: “I don’t want newspapers to die like radio.”

Southern California Broadcasters Association President Mary Beth Garber has written to Neil in response, saying, “By presenting Mr. Addante’s inaccurate statement as fact, you have left the reader with the impression that radio is dead. Nothing could be further from the truth.” Read More…

Posted under Newspaper, Radio, Research

Hold ‘em or Fold ‘em
From The Center for Media Research
March 24, 2009

A new 24/7 WallStreet report says that, over the last few weeks, the newspaper industry has entered a new period of decline. The parent of the papers in Philadelphia declared bankruptcy as did the Journal Register chain. The Rocky Mountain News closed along with the Seattle Post Intelligencer, owned by Hearst, and Hearst has said it will also close The San Francisco Chronicle if it cannot make massive cuts at the paper.

The report includes a list of the ten major daily papers that are most likely to fold or shut their print operations and only publish online, chosen based on the financial strength of their parent companies, the amount of direct competition that they face in their markets, and industry information on how much money they are losing. Based on this analysis, it is possible that eight of the fifty largest daily newspapers in the United States could cease publication in the next eighteen months. Read More…

Posted under Newspaper, Research